As the final hours close on COP30 in Belem, Brazil, tensions and temperatures (literally) have been rising. The second week of discussions in ‘the gateway to the Amazon’ saw parties stuck in a deadlock over fossil fuels, a fire spread across the blue zone, an Indigenous blockade, and arguments over the future of deforestation. This COP has been filled with symbolism. The conference ended in the early hours of Saturday morning with a contentious final deal that, for many, fell short of expectations.
Participants have expressed frustration at COP President André Corrêa do Lago and how the meetings have been run, with the final hours of talks late into Saturday morning ending with a bitter standoff between a group of over 80 developed and developing countries, and a group including Saudi Arabia, its allies, and China, India, and Russia. There has been rising tension over the inclusion of items such as a roadmap for ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels’, in the final text. This text, which on submission did not contain such a roadmap, was rejected by 29 countries, including the UK, Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and a number of European nations, who requested that ‘the Presidency present a revised proposal’ that presents a ‘balanced and forward-looking outcome’. The final agreement, in fact, makes no explicit reference to fossil fuels or a roadmap, but does recognise the emissions gap and ‘best available science… as provided by the IPCC’. The agreement also launches the Global Implementation Accelerator, a voluntary initiative to support the implementation of NDCs and National Adaptation Plans, and the Belem Mission to 1.5, a platform to ‘foster enhanced ambition and international cooperation across mitigation, adaptation and investment’.
Also missing from the final agreement, and a blow to the Presidency and Brazil’s environment minister, was the deforestation roadmap, despite this year’s conference being dubbed ‘the rainforest COP’. Brazil did, however, launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a multibillion-dollar fund, set up outside the UN, that intends to support forest conservation and reduce deforestation by investing in bonds and paying out the returns as a reward for countries and communities that conserve their standing forests. Its success depends on buy-in from governments and financial institutions; Brazil and Indonesia have already contributed, while the UK have made it clear they will not be paying into the fund at this stage.
The final decision also calls for tripling of adaptation finance by 2035, although this is 5 years later than stated in an earlier draft. While a big step in the right direction, this still falls drastically short of what climate-vulnerable countries are predicted to need (almost three times as much). In another win for climate finance, thirteen countries alongside the Climate Commission of African Island States announced plans to develop national country platforms, through the Green Climate Fund Readiness Programme, to mobilise and scale public and private finance to support the institutional architecture for climate and development.
This week also saw a group of Munduruku people from the Amazon Basin block the main entrance to the conference on Friday morning, in protest of the treatment of Indigenous Peoples in the country. COP President André Corrêa do Lago later spent over an hour talking to the representatives. Such pressure has led to the formalised Belem Action Mechanism (BAM), which is designed to coordinate and accelerate a ‘just transition’ towards a low-carbon economy, ‘where workers and communities are in charge of decisions that affect their lives and livelihoods’. This will remain pertinent to next year’s COP, now confirmed to be hosted in Türkiye with Chris Bowen of Australia as ‘President of Negotiations’. While Pacific leaders have expressed disappointment at Australia’s loss, Bowen has committed to holding the pre-COP meeting in the Pacific, ahead of the main conference. This is hoped to showcase Pacific plans to become the first 100% renewable energy region in the world, while also driving finance into the Pacific Resilience Facility, a fund to help island nations adapt to pressing climate impacts.
The key takeaway that has come out of this year’s COP is that the ‘climate ship’ has not sunk. Questions over the COP and its future have been raised, but the final agreement, while perceived as unambitious by many, has preserved multilateralism. ‘Despite roaring headwinds, ’ UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said, 194 countries stood firm in solidarity, rock solid in support of climate cooperation. ’
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Photo credit: Ueslei Marcelino/COP30